TR 
EN
As a result of ship harassments, the S-300 radar lockdown and dispatchment of weapons and equipments to the Eastern Aegean Islands (not first), the likelihood of a war between the two countries is raised in public opinion. Judging by the trend of events, such a possibility is seen. The US continues to support Greece with weapons and materials. However, is it possible for Greece to fight us while EU countries struggle to overcome the pre-winter energy crisis? On the other hand, assertive statements against us by Greek politicians and some military officers continue. Of course, war harms the entire region and the involved parties. But, various voices from the Greek public opinion began to emerge. By the way, presently it is understood from the surveys that they can affect the Greek public opinion even if they do not affect the government.
The most important figure in Greece among those who think differently about our country; Evaggelos Apostolakis, former Minister of Defense of Greece in a July interview with the Greek radio station 9.84 which received little public attention in our country:
“…We will be alone if there is a conflict with Turkey... We purchase what is for sale and available. It's seen as an opportunity they give us, and we seize on it. I think we went into a frenzy, an excess. On the one hand, people struggle in their daily lives, they suffer from expensiveness, and we spend billions of euros like lettuce leaves. This is an exaggeration that must stop, it gets nowhere. We will never have more military capabilities than Turkey. Their sizes are different…” he claimed.
The former minister previously issued similar warnings. What I understand from this statement; their armament efforts are not founded on a need-based project and plan. Although the government spokesman claims that his allies are on Greece's side, the assertion of Apostolakis who is a former military man, sounds more realistic. Along with the military perspective, he also talks about the difficulties of the people in their struggle for survival.
In this context, let me share with you some limited information about the economic situation of Greece in a local open source I could obtain. This information only belongs to small businesses. It is stated that 52.7% of the mentioned enterprises have decreased cash reserves and 37 percent have liquidity problems. It is reported that 27.8 percent of this 37 percent tranche have no cash at all, and 9.2 percent have enough cash for less than a month. There are reports that the public is avoiding even street markets and that the government will financially double the heating support this year.
The former minister says that in such a situation, we spend exaggerated money on defense like lettuce leaves.
This winter will be extremely hard. It is wondered how they will overcome the energy issue.
In this context, it is now widely known that Greece uses tanker ships to transport Russian oil. This topic was mentioned in a previous post of mine. It is said that 175 tankers have transferred 23.9 million barrels of Russian oil to other tankers in the last 6 months off the coast of Greece. During this period, a total of 41 transfers were made. This is still ongoing. The majority of them go to European countries anyway. However, they do not have much to gain for the country from this. Why?
Because, another issue that is not much on the agenda of the Turkish public opinion is that the Greek shipowners have different attitude styles from the government's will. Only a small part of the income from this side which has the largest commercial wing in the world, is added to the budget of Greece. Despite their support to Greek economy in terms of the added-values such as the jobs, employment, etc., they have a high-level tax exemptions. For example, according to Reuters News Agency “at the beginning of 2019 the annual contribution expected to be added to the budget from the shipowners was 75 Million Euros”. In other words, enough amount of money to transfer 7-8 medium quality players in the Turkish football super league. Not even enough to start a football team. Although the governments made a lot of promises to the public on this issue, they could not change the shipowner privileges in the Greek constitution. The EU is informing the government about the change of this privilege. However, shipowners can not come to any political and financial pressure, and they can even say that they can immigrate completely to the UK which left the EU as known.
Under these conditions, of which I have given only two examples, I do not think that the public and business circles will want a war with Turkey. For instance, in a survey conducted in May last year, the Greeks; reveals that 68 percent find a way to live peacefully with the Turks, and 70 percent worry about there will be a military conflict between the two countries. In the face of world realities, I think that these rates may have increased even more today.
So why does the Greek government keep provoking people? Excess of foreign support and foreign debt in defense prevent the formation of objective conditions and approaches. They are easily influenced and manipulated. It is for this reason that Apostolakis talks about unplanned and excessive defense expenditures: “...We purchase what is available and for sale. It's seen as an opportunity they give us, and we seize it...’’ Nevertheless, world and regional realities may ensure to change of these non-analytical policies.
Europe needs energy. If this does not happen there will be more production declines. With basic necessities, life will become more difficult. The decrease in production will also affect the container market. The purchase and sale of goods and transportation will be disrupted. Already, around 11 percent of all goods transported globally are reportedly stuck in key ports and unable to be unloaded. It is obvious that a conflict between the two countries will complicate matters in this sense. Even for a short time this means making difficult the transportation of the Black Sea and the Aegean to reach to the Mediterranean in a commercial sense. There will also be affected countries apart from the conflicting parties. The world cannot afford such an imbalance while the war between Russia and Ukraine is ongoing.
However, if the provocations continue, it is difficult to agree. Apostalakis also warns about this: “…We will never have more military capabilities than Turkey. Their sizes are different…”.
References:
Tahsin, İlhan, ‘‘Marul Yaprağı Gibi Harcıyoruz, Türkiye’den Daha Fazla Askeri Kabiliyetimiz Olmayacak, Boyutları Farklı’’, Birlik Newspaper, July 21, 2021, https://birlikgazetesi.org/marul-yapragi-gibi-harciyoruz-turkiyeden-daha-fazla-askeri-kabiliyetimiz-olmayacak-boyutlari-farkli/ (Last Access Date: August 31, 2022)
Tahsin, İlhan, ‘‘İkonomu: Yunanistan’ın Müttefikleri Yanında’’, Birlik Newspaper, August 29, 2022, https://birlikgazetesi.org/ikonomu-yunanistanin-muttefikleri-yaninda/ (Last Access Date: September 01, 2022)
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Bostancı, Aydın, ‘‘Isınma yardımı bu yıl iki misli olacak’’, Azınlıkça, September 05, 2022, https://azinlikca1.net/yunanistan-bati-trakya-haber/item/61601-isinma-yardimi-bu-yil-iki-misli-olacak (Last Access Date: September 10, 2022)
Kırıkkanat, Alp, ‘‘Karadeniz Üzerinden Güncel Bir Değerlendirme’’, Alp Kırıkkanat Seyir Defteri, May 31, 2022, https://www.alpkirikkanat.com/makale-detay/131/karadeniz-uzerinden-guncel-bir-degerlendirme (Last Access Date: September 01, 2022)
‘‘Yunanistan’dan Akdeniz'de gizli Rus petrolü transferi’’, 7Deniz, September 07, 2022, https://www.7deniz.net/haber-yunanistan-dan-akdeniz-de-gizli-rus-petrolu-transferi-43287.html (Last Access Date: September 10, 2022)
Reuters Staff, ‘‘Greek shipowners agreeto pay 75 million euros annually to state’’, Reuters, February 27, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/greece-shipping-taxation-idUSL5N20M60E (Last Access Date: September: 14, 2022)
Reuters Staff, ‘‘Greek shipowners say EU taxpressurecouldmake Brexit Britain attractive’’, Reuters, June 08, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-greece-shipping-idUSKCN1J42D7 (Last Access Date: September 15, 2022)
Günaydın, Enis, ‘‘Anket: Yunanların yüzde 70'i Türkiye ile olası bir çatışmadan endişe duyuyor’’, euronews, May 15, 2021, https://tr.euronews.com/2021/05/15/anket-yunanlar-n-yuzde-70-i-turkiye-ile-olas-bir-cat-smadan-endise-duyuyor (Last Access Date: September 15, 2022)
‘‘lfW: Konteyner taşımacılığındaki tıkanıklık yeniden arttı’’, 7Deniz, September 07, 2022, https://www.7deniz.net/haber-lfw-konteyner-tasimaciligindaki-tikaniklik-yeniden-artti-43285.html (Last Access Date: September 10, 2022)
